Analysis of the international oil market (10.19-25)
OPEC has begun to substantially reduce production. Saudi Arabia took the lead in announcing the reduction of supply to customers, and then the United Arab Emirates and Iran followed the reduction of supply. The crude oil futures market rebounded after plunging for two consecutive days. U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly, the cold season in the northern hemisphere has come, and the international oil price has quickly rebounded to more than $60 a barrel
OPEC unexpectedly reduced crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day. On October 20, OPEC issued a statement that from November 1, the daily crude oil production of the 10 countries with quotas of the organization has been reduced from the current 27.5 million barrels to 26.3 million barrels, a decrease of 4.3%, much higher than the originally expected 3.6%. This is the official production reduction announced by OPEC in the past two years. According to the agreement, Saudi Arabia reduced its daily output by 380000 barrels, although China's export volume of experimental machines was large. OPEC announced that the current crude oil supply has exceeded the actual demand, leading to market instability
after OPEC made the decision to reduce the daily output of 1.2 million B and the minimum elongation at break is the elongation barrel of the corresponding level chain, Saudi Arabia immediately took action to notify some customers around the world to reduce their crude oil supply in November. On Tuesday, the Abu Dhabi state-owned oil company of the United Arab Emirates said it would reduce its supply to customers by 5%, as part of its production reduction in OPEC. The output reduction of the UAE in OPEC is 100000 barrels per day. On Wednesday, Iran's director of OPEC said that Iran's oil customers will receive less oil supply in November. He said that Iran would reduce its crude oil production by 176000 barrels per day in November from the current 4.17 million barrels per day. The marketing department of Iran's state-owned oil company will inform customers of this decisionPresident Bush warned OPEC on Monday that high oil prices would "damage the economy" and lead to a decline in demand for their products. Bush said in an interview with CNBC television, "I hope OPEC can understand that high oil prices can damage the economy. If the economy is damaged, it means that purchasing power will decline."
however, Steven Rowles, an analyst at CFC Seymour in Hong Kong, said that OPEC has credit problems. Saudi Arabia has taken measures to reduce production, while the production of Venezuela, Indonesia and Nigeria has been below the quota, and people are doubting OPEC's ability to reduce production
the cold climate supports the market. The weather service research company in Massachusetts predicts that the average temperature in the northeast of the United States, the world's largest heating oil consumption area, will be higher than normal in November and lower than the normal temperature level in the same period in history in December and January
Peter Donovan, vice president of vantage trading in New York, said that with the rising prices of natural gas and distillate oil, weather conditions have had an impact on crude oil prices. He also said that the above news from OPEC also pushed up oil prices slightly, because market participants realized that although there were various doubts, OPEC would indeed start to reduce production
the Norwegian oil safety department announced that the North Sea Snorre A and Vigdis oilfields, which have been closed for two weeks, will resume production in an all-round way. These oil fields have been shut down due to the impact of the safety performance of lifeboats. At the same time, it is reported that BP's production in the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska has also returned to normal levelsAFP reported that Iran will use a new uranium enrichment equipment this week. A spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry said that Iran would respond in an "appropriate manner" to any sanctions imposed by the United Nations on its nuclear activities. The official did not elaborate on how to retaliate. The Iranian oil minister said in an interview on October 20 that we never use oil as a weapon and will not do so in the future unless the country is in danger. We never said we would use oil as a weapon
due to the sharp decline in U.S. crude oil imports, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) was 323.3 million barrels, down 3.3 million barrels from the previous week, still far higher than the upper end of the average range over the same period over the years; The US energy information administration believes that as of the week of October 20, the US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory and distillate oil inventory all fell. The total commercial oil inventory in the United States fell by 11.3 million barrels, the largest decline since September 2, 2005, but it was far higher than the upper end of the average level over the years, still at more than 1billion barrels. Compared with the data of the same period in history, crude oil inventory was 5.2% higher than that of the same period last year; Gasoline inventory fell by 2.8 million barrels, just higher than the upper part of the average range over the same period of previous years, 4.2% higher than the same period last year. Distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.4 million barrels, still far higher than the upper end of the average range over the years, 14.4% higher than the same period last year
at the same time, the total oil demand of the United States rose to the highest level since December 23 last year. According to the data released by the US energy information administration, as of the four weeks ended October 20, the total daily oil demand of the United States averaged 21.502 million barrels, a slight increase of 61000 barrels over the previous week, which was the sixth weekly average demand in history. Among them, the demand for gasoline increased by 2.3%, and the daily demand was 9.511 million barrels, an increase of 213000 barrels over the previous week; It is also the highest level since September 1. It is also the highest level in history except for the peak demand season in summer. It needs to go beyond the single function to a variety of control modes. If you want to learn more information, please pay attention to the level of our website. The demand for distillate oil, including heating oil and diesel oil, fell by 5.4%, with an average daily demand of 4.279 million barrels, 246000 barrels lower than the previous week, the lowest since September 29. The demand for aviation fuel oil increased by 2.1%, with an average daily demand of 1.763 million barrels, 36000 barrels higher than the previous week, the highest level since August 11
Asian crude oil spot market: Although a new round of supply cuts should boost the atmosphere of the spot market, the current abundant supply continues to depress the market. There are at least ships on the market that did not sell the medium quality and high sulfur Oman crude oil shipped in December, and the trading of other grades of crude oil is also difficult. It is said that Oman crude oil delivered in December was traded at a discount of 30 cents per barrel to the official sales price of the Ministry of oil and gas of Oman, but market participants said that this price was too high for the current weak market fundamentals. In recent trading reports, Arab crude oil was sold at a discount of 32 cents per barrel in December. Murban crude oil delivered in December is said to be traded at a discount of more than 30 cents per barrel to the official sales price, which may be the first transaction of this month
recent international oil market forecast: Barkley technical analyst said in a research report that it is impossible for oil prices to turn to the upward trend. The report said: "the long-term rise has been damaged, and the oil price cannot rise rapidly. It is expected that the weak trend will eventually extend to $55 a barrel, but then we can see a technical long recovery."
analysts from Cameron Hanover, a trade consulting company, said that whether the oil price rises needs to know whether the four questionable oil producing countries from Iran, Venezuela, Indonesia and Nigeria really reduce production. Faxes from these four countries to traders about reducing supply will be indicators of market gains
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